Big Tech. AI. Creators. Commerce. Has the media industry misunderstood where power really sits?
When Evan Shapiro returns to Commerce Media Matters, the conversation quickly moves beyond headlines into something much bigger.
From AI infrastructure and the economics of Big Tech to creator businesses, Fox's evolving strategy and the future of commerce, Evan argues that the media industry continues to solve the wrong problems while technology companies keep investing in what comes next.
The discussion explores why attention has shifted towards consumers rather than platforms, why today's AI business models may prove temporary, and why companies that understand investment—not optimisation—are likely to shape the next decade of media.
In this episode, we discuss:
- Why Big Tech continues to out-invest—and outperform—traditional media.
Why the real centre of gravity in media now sits with the consumer.
What Fox is doing differently from almost every other traditional media company.
Why creator businesses are entering a new phase of commercial maturity.
Whether today's AI business models are sustainable.
Why commerce may become the operating layer connecting media, creators and technology.
What the next Media Universe could look like over the coming decade.
What you’ll learn from this episode:
The consumer has become the new centre of gravity: Media companies often think about platforms, channels and content. Evan argues the real shift has already happened—the centre of gravity has moved into consumers' hands, with the smartphone becoming the remote control for virtually every aspect of modern life.
Big Tech wins because it invests differently: Traditional media often optimises existing businesses. Technology companies invest years before profits arrive. Evan explains why this willingness to fund uncertain futures—not simply better products—has created an ever-widening gap between Big Tech and traditional media.
Commerce is becoming media's connective layer: As creators mature into businesses and media companies search for new growth, commerce is emerging as more than a monetisation strategy. The conversation explores why commerce could become the layer connecting content, advertising, retail media and consumer experiences across every platform.
Big ideas from this episode:
The Centre of Gravity Has Shifted
The media industry has traditionally focused on owning channels, platforms and audiences. Evan argues that power has fundamentally shifted towards the individual consumer, with smartphones becoming the control centre for how people discover, consume and purchase across every aspect of life. For media companies, retailers and technology platforms alike, this means designing around consumer behaviour rather than legacy distribution models.
“The center of gravity is in the consumer. Period. That’s just the truth.”
Why Big Tech Keeps Outperforming Traditional Media
One of the strongest themes throughout the episode is that the gap between technology companies and traditional media isn't simply about innovation—it's about investment philosophy. Evan argues that successful technology companies are prepared to invest years before profits materialise, while legacy media often focuses on extracting more value from existing businesses.
“They also invest in the future in a way that media just never has.”
Rather than asking which company has the best product today, Evan suggests asking which companies are investing in where consumer behaviour will be tomorrow.
The First Business Model Around AI Probably Won't Be The Last
AI is often discussed as though today's winners are already established. Evan challenges that assumption, arguing that history repeatedly shows the first commercial model built around transformative technologies is rarely the one that endures.
“The first business model around a technology is usually wrong. Now, search was right, but almost everything else was wrong.”
From email and search to streaming, breakthrough technologies have typically evolved through multiple business models before reaching long-term commercial sustainability. Evan believes artificial intelligence is likely following the same pattern.
Is OpenAI The Pets.com Of AI?
Perhaps Evan's boldest prediction draws a parallel between today's AI boom and the dot-com era. His argument isn't that artificial intelligence lacks long-term value, but that the current commercial structure may prove unsustainable as investment expectations collide with economic reality.
"Let me just make sure everybody understands this. OpenAI doesn't make money. Sam Altman is a liar, and they're never going to be profitable. That's going to be the pets.com of AI."
Whether listeners agree or disagree, it's a thought-provoking challenge to one of the technology industry's most widely accepted narratives.
Fox Is Quietly Reinventing Itself
While much of the industry continues to focus on protecting traditional media assets, Evan points to Fox as one of the few established companies making deliberate investments in creator businesses, technology and new distribution models. Rather than defending legacy broadcasting, Fox appears to be positioning itself for the next era of media.
“They go from being a broadcast company with cable offshoots and sports and things like that to being a technology company.”
The discussion explores why Fox's strategy may offer valuable lessons for broadcasters, publishers and media owners looking beyond their existing business models.
About the guest
Evan Shapiro is one of the media industry's best-known strategists, analysts and commentators, helping organisations understand how technology, platforms and consumer behaviour are reshaping the global media landscape.
Known as the creator of the widely recognised Media Universe maps, Evan has spent years tracking the changing balance of power between traditional media, technology companies, streaming platforms and creators. Through his consultancy ESHAP, keynote presentations and newsletter Media War & Peace, he advises some of the world's largest media organisations on strategy, investment and the future of audience behaviour.
A regular speaker at international industry events including Cannes Lions, IBC and NAB Show, Evan is known for connecting commercial realities with long-term strategic thinking—challenging conventional wisdom while helping businesses navigate what's coming next.
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